{"id":206,"date":"2013-08-01T14:29:41","date_gmt":"2013-08-01T21:29:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/optimalag.net\/riskblog\/?p=206"},"modified":"2014-08-25T15:25:17","modified_gmt":"2014-08-25T22:25:17","slug":"sometimes-normal-isnt-good","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/optimalag.net\/riskblog\/sometimes-normal-isnt-good\/","title":{"rendered":"Sometimes Normal Isn\u2019t Good"},"content":{"rendered":"
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In his book Thinking, Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman defines intense regret as \u201cwhat you experience when you can most easily imagine yourself doing something other than what you did.\u201d\u00a0 We\u2019ve all experienced regret at some point in our lives but fear of intense regret can be paralyzing and detrimental to not only ourselves but also to society as a whole.<\/p>\n

Fear of intense regret plays a major role in maintaining the status quo even when it makes sense to do otherwise.\u00a0 A person may have a terrific idea for a new business but quitting a well-paying job with benefits is a tough thing to do knowing there is a considerable risk in pursuing the entrepreneurial venture.\u00a0 It\u2019s not the monetary consequences that concern a person so much as the intense regret they may feel looking back if things don\u2019t work out.\u00a0 They can easily image themselves continuing in their old job and doing well.<\/p>\n

As Kahneman points out, it is not just the regret but also the blame that is invoked by comparison to the norm that impedes risk taking and progress.\u00a0 When somebody does something away from the norm, it is easier to place blame on them for the consequences.\u00a0 Taking chances, whether it be with investment decisions or career paths can be quite rewarding.\u00a0 But, the farther these choices are from the accepted norm, the more a person needs to brace themselves for intense criticism if things don\u2019t work out.\u00a0 This even works itself into everyday decision-making as people often choose name brand products with the comfort of knowing that many others are making similar choices and a bad outcome is less likely to involve intense regret.<\/p>\n

How can all of this be so bad as to be detrimental to society as a whole?\u00a0 When society is reluctant to take risks for fear of intense regret, we miss opportunities to make incredible breakthroughs.\u00a0 Our founding fathers took an incredible risk declaring independence from England much to the chagrin of many loyalists who felt maintaining the status quo was the prudent and intelligent thing to do.<\/p>\n

Basic research in this country has evolved tremendously in the last 30 years and not all of it is for the better.\u00a0 Competition for funding is more intense than ever and awards are made as much or more with the probability of success in mind rather than the impact of success should it occur.\u00a0 Criticism is intense when large dollar amounts are poured into what is later termed a far-fetched idea.\u00a0 This is code for ideas away from the norm that don\u2019t work out.\u00a0 It\u2019s a lot easier for researchers to earn a living employing tried and true methodologies on research topics that fit into the normal range of doing things than it is to stake their reputation on trying something different.<\/p>\n

This holds true in the medical profession, too.\u00a0 As Kahneman points out, a physician faced with the decision of whether or not to prescribe an unconventional treatment must weigh the odds of success against the intense regret and blame that is sure to follow if the treatment is a failure.\u00a0 Conventional treatment may not be in the best interest of the patient but it is easier to defend if things go wrong.<\/p>\n

In 2008, neurosurgeon Dr. Ben Carson wrote an interesting book called Take the Risk that describes his experience with this phenomenon.\u00a0 In it, he boils his decision-making process down to four simple questions.\u00a0 What is the worst thing that could happen if we operate?\u00a0 What is the best thing that could happen if we operate?\u00a0 What is the worst thing that could happen if we don\u2019t operate?\u00a0 And, what is the best thing that could happen if we don\u2019t operate?<\/p>\n

Answering these four questions honestly and with consequential analysis has persuaded Dr. Carson and his patients to undertake many high risk surgeries that other surgeons were unwilling or unable to attempt.\u00a0 Some of these surgeries failed but many were miraculously successful.\u00a0 In most cases, conventional treatment offered little hope for the patient yet represented a safe choice for the physician because of its adherence to the norm.\u00a0 A willingness to take the risk and a lack of fear for the feeling of intense regret was needed to produce the incredible breakthroughs the patients so desperately needed.<\/p>\n

Feelings of regret are real and influential on decisions made every day in society.\u00a0 Feelings of intense regret are, as much as anything, a product of society itself.\u00a0 Actions that increase fear of intense regret, for the most part, impede progress and decrease the frequency of incredible breakthroughs.\u00a0 Runaway criticism offered in hindsight by the media toward those that have dared to be great and failed should be patronized with these thoughts in mind.\u00a0 Sometimes normal isn\u2019t good when it comes to needing someone with the courage to take the risk.<\/p>\n